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Organized religion 'will be driven toward extinction' in 9 countries, experts predictBy Richard Allen Greene, CNN Organized religion will all but vanish eventually from nine Western-style democracies, a team of mathematicians predict in a new paper based on census data stretching back 100 years. It won't die out completely, but "religion will be driven toward extinction" in countries including Ireland, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the Netherlands, they say. It will also wither away in Austria, the Czech Republic, Finland and Switzerland, they anticipate. They can't make a prediction about the United States because the U.S. census doesn't ask about religion, lead author Daniel Abrams told CNN. But nine other countries provide enough data for detailed mathematical modeling, he said. "If you look at the data, 'unaffiliated' is the fastest-growing group" in those countries, he said. "We start with two big assumptions based on sociology," he explained. The first is that it's more attractive to be part of the majority than the minority, so as religious affiliation declines, it becomes more popular not to be a churchgoer than to be one, he said - what Abrams calls the majority effect. "People are more likely to switch to groups with more members," he said. Social networks can have a powerful influence, he said. "Just a few connections to people who are (religiously) unaffiliated is enough to drive the effect," he said. The other assumption underlying the prediction is that there are social, economic and political advantages to being unaffiliated with a religion in the countries where it's in decline - what Abrams calls the utility effect. "The utility of being unaffiliated seems to be higher than affiliated in Western democracies," he said. Abrams and his co-authors are not passing any judgment on religion, he's quick to say - they're just modeling a prediction based on trends. "We're not trying to make any commentary about religion or whether people should be religious or not," he said. "I became interested in this because I saw survey data results for the U.S. and was surprised by how large the unaffiliated group was," he said, referring to a number of studies done by universities and think tanks on trends in religion. Studies suggest that "unaffiliated" is the fastest-growing religious group in the United States, with about 15% of the population falling into a category experts call the "nones." They're not necessarily atheists or non-believers, experts say, just people who do not associate themselves with a particular religion or house of worship at the time of the survey. Abrams had done an earlier study looking into the extinction of languages spoken by small numbers of people. When he saw the religion data, his co-author "Richard Wiener suggested we try to apply a similar technique to religious affiliation," Abrams said. The paper, by Abrams, Wiener and Haley A. Yaple, is called "A mathematical model of social group competition with application to the growth of religious non-affiliation." They presented it this week at the Dallas meeting of the American Physical Society. Only the Czech Republic already has a majority of people who are unaffiliated with religion, but the Netherlands, for example, will go from about 40% unaffiliated today to more than 70% by 2050, they expect. Even deeply Catholic Ireland will see religion die out, the model predicts. "They've gone from 0.04% unaffiliated in 1961 to 4.2% in 2006, our most recent data point," Abrams says. He admits that the increase in Muslim immigration to Europe may throw off the model, but he thinks the trend is robust enough to withstand some challenges. "Netherlands data goes back to 1860," he pointed out. "Every single data that we were able to find shows that people are moving from the affiliated to unaffiliated. I can't imagine that will change, but that's personal opinion, not what the data shows." But Barry Kosmin, a demographer of religion at Trinity College in Connecticut, is doubtful. "Religion relies on human beings. They aren't rational or predictable according to the laws of physics. Religious fervor waxes and wanes in unpredictable ways," he said. "The Jewish tradition that says prophecy is for fools and children is probably wise," he added. And Abrams, Wiener and Yaple are not the first to predict the end of religion. Peter Berger, a former president of the Society for the Scientific Study of Religion, once said that, "People will become so bored with what religious groups have to offer that they will look elsewhere." He said Protestantism "has reached the strange state of self-liquidation," that Catholicism was in severe crisis, and anticipated that "religions are likely to survive in small enclaves and pockets" in the United States. He made those predictions in February 1968. soundoff (3,523 Responses)« Previous 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63Post a comment
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You've got to be kidding me-it's so trasnpartelny clear now!
Yaa. It's about time.
The Scientific Advisor of Napoleon Bonapart once said to him that we don't need God anymore, just because they made a few discoveries at their time! Man feels he is everything! Was this Advisor right???
It will never happen. It only take one with the faith of a mustard seed.
The continued success of religion depends heavily on a couple of factors. The first of those factors is intense indoctrination at an early age. The vast majority of believers are raised in an environment that pretty much shuns if not ridicules any attempt to question the moral supremacy of XYZ religion. In fact, I wouldn't think it uncommon that children who dare to question the existence of God or Jesus are swiftly met with severe punishment either in physical form or some other form such as verbal ridicule, loss of privileges, etc. "Theocratic parenting" is the term I'm looking for.
The second is the belief that our nation was founded on Christian values and basically nothing else. Such a belief draws an erroneous and misleading connection between the success of the United States as a functioning society and Christian doctrine. In reality, there is no connection. If Christian values had held the potential for creating what we currently know as the United States of America, then our way of life would have existed long before 1776.
In fact, democracy and theism of any kind are in direct contradiction with one another. This is because the success of democracy is made possible by the empowerment of individuals to take responsibility for their role in society. That is, people are expected to make decisions not only for themselves, but for the benefit of society as a whole. This of course, requires an intuitive sense of wisdom that is a reflection of independent decision-making.
Religion, on the other hand, does not observe, acknowledge, or promote intuitive wisdom as a guide for societal harmony. Instead, the guide is a supreme deity, and the commands of that deity are laid down through an inflexible text, the existence of which makes the implication that human beings are utterly and totally incapable of governing themselves to the betterment of the general good.
Therefore, from the perspective of someone who is truly religious, governance and religion are one in the same - and a true separation between church and state is an impossibility if people are to lead "moral" lives and live in a "moral society. That is, a government without religion is an immoral government regardless of how transparent and responsive to the general public that government may be.
So, by process of deductive reasoning, I don't find it entirely unreasonable to suggest that the founding fathers were in fact "Godless." This is because if they had believed in a God, then the separation between church and state would never have happened in the first place, as its existence flies in the face of the very basis of religious ideologies of all types.
And of course you'll hear people say, "Well, the founding fathers were Protestants." And to that I say of course they were. Would it have been possible for them to ascend within a deeply religious society in the first place without feigning allegiance dominant theology? Obviously if they had suddenly proclaimed themselves as atheists they would've quickly become victims of a populist backlash and found themselves hanging from the gallows.
Nevermind the mathematics of the eventual disappearance of religion from western society. The concept is as simple as this: A true democracy existing under a truly secular government will be the end-all to any religion as time progress. And the two main reasons for this is 1.) Choice as described at the beginning of the post 2.) the acceptance of the notion that morals are a reflection of the common good as defined by empowered individuals, not a set of instructions found in a handbook drafted by the divine.
A brilliant discussion.
Sweet! New missions fields! ! !
Yea!!!
Good riddance to these thousands of year old fairytales! I can't wait until these "modern day" religions go the way of Roman, Greek, and Astec "Gods".
Praise the lord this is awesome news. Religions are the number one cause of all suffering in the world, closely followed by politicians then corporations.
I don't think that is true. In terms of highly organized religion, people might move away from that, but a belief in a higher power will always be there. Also population growth on Earth in the coming years will be driven by places in Asia and Africa, places which are highly religious, ie India etc..
Further in the United States atheism is more common among White people, however among Hispanic people and other minorities it is rare.
The countries mentioned in this article are thinly populated irrelevant countries, religion will live on.
Irrelevant countries? You really are American.
WOW>..thinly populated and irrelevant. Seriously? Yeah, Americans really need to get out of the country for a while..and I am here.
CNN if you want to get the blogs arguing on faith, which you seem to like to do every week or so, roll with headlines like this – "Darwin Proves No God" or "Evolution There is No Doubt" or "Fossil of Angel Found In Scandinavian Cemetery." Or if you had a writer on staff you could try "Darwin, God and the Logic of Empirical Knowledge."
And also God just told me that Joaquim, the soon to be born younger brother of Jesus Christ, will set the record straight. Which will give rise to the Holy Quatro. Father, Son, Brother and Holy Ghost.
"If you look at the data, 'unaffiliated' is the fastest-growing group" in those countries, he said. Unaffiliated does not mean "atheist." And other research shows that people who believe in a "higher power" but do not associate with a particular religion are actually a faster growing group.
Nice straw man argument smart guy... the study addresses organized religion dying out not the rise of atheism.
Also let me just say anecdotally, where I grew up (rural northern california), religion is already dead among my generation so I have a very easy time believing this study. My estimate is that no more than 20% of people in their twenties in my town believe in god and I am being generous.
The Roman empire thought about this very idea two thousand years ago. It is sad to say that that empire lays in the dust of Italy this very day. The written Word of God has been around for almost 3500 years, and let us not talk about the oral part of the Word. The only thing I see dissappearing is you and the rest of those that do not believe. The bible is the number one selling book of all time. It out sells any book every day. You and the experts need to check your facts again. Remember when you are dead and gone, the Word of God will steal be here preaching. Does a car or house just pop out of thin air, or does some one makes it? I agree with you, somebody some where made that house along with that car.
Elijah, your response makes no sense.
Elijah, there are 1.6 billion Muslims that most certainly would disagree with you.
If only we could do the same thing with our political parties.
Non Believers have been predicting the downfall of religions for a very long time. It will never happem, we are wired to believe in a higher power.
@Frank
It depends on how you define 'downfall'. The prediction made by this model is based on trends that have been happening over a long time.
Agreed. As the article says – "it waxes and wanes" and at the end of one's rope, it is always amazing how everyone is searching for a savior.
Frank, we're not talking about the belief in a higher power here, but the decline of organized religion.
From the article, ""religions are likely to survive in small enclaves and pockets" in the United States.
He made those predictions in February 1968."
Whatta prediction!
Maybe it's the reason why we have a Christian President. And politicians clinging to religion for a sure seat in the government office.
I think the article is just for laughs.
I believe that religion will always be important to some extent...but we tend to forget that several of our 'Founding Fathers' weren't terribly religious from the beginning.
Benjamin Franklin, Thomas Jefferson, and James Madison are just examples of early prominent figures in the United States who were no more than 'Deists' at best.
Separation of church and state should be our basis when referring to politics, but I believe that voters place FAR TOO MUCH emphasis on a politician's religious beliefs/affiliation.