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March 23rd, 2011
10:56 AM ET
Organized religion 'will be driven toward extinction' in 9 countries, experts predictBy Richard Allen Greene, CNN Organized religion will all but vanish eventually from nine Western-style democracies, a team of mathematicians predict in a new paper based on census data stretching back 100 years. It won't die out completely, but "religion will be driven toward extinction" in countries including Ireland, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the Netherlands, they say. It will also wither away in Austria, the Czech Republic, Finland and Switzerland, they anticipate. They can't make a prediction about the United States because the U.S. census doesn't ask about religion, lead author Daniel Abrams told CNN. But nine other countries provide enough data for detailed mathematical modeling, he said. "If you look at the data, 'unaffiliated' is the fastest-growing group" in those countries, he said. "We start with two big assumptions based on sociology," he explained. The first is that it's more attractive to be part of the majority than the minority, so as religious affiliation declines, it becomes more popular not to be a churchgoer than to be one, he said - what Abrams calls the majority effect. "People are more likely to switch to groups with more members," he said. Social networks can have a powerful influence, he said. "Just a few connections to people who are (religiously) unaffiliated is enough to drive the effect," he said. The other assumption underlying the prediction is that there are social, economic and political advantages to being unaffiliated with a religion in the countries where it's in decline - what Abrams calls the utility effect. "The utility of being unaffiliated seems to be higher than affiliated in Western democracies," he said. Abrams and his co-authors are not passing any judgment on religion, he's quick to say - they're just modeling a prediction based on trends. "We're not trying to make any commentary about religion or whether people should be religious or not," he said. "I became interested in this because I saw survey data results for the U.S. and was surprised by how large the unaffiliated group was," he said, referring to a number of studies done by universities and think tanks on trends in religion. Studies suggest that "unaffiliated" is the fastest-growing religious group in the United States, with about 15% of the population falling into a category experts call the "nones." They're not necessarily atheists or non-believers, experts say, just people who do not associate themselves with a particular religion or house of worship at the time of the survey. Abrams had done an earlier study looking into the extinction of languages spoken by small numbers of people. When he saw the religion data, his co-author "Richard Wiener suggested we try to apply a similar technique to religious affiliation," Abrams said. The paper, by Abrams, Wiener and Haley A. Yaple, is called "A mathematical model of social group competition with application to the growth of religious non-affiliation." They presented it this week at the Dallas meeting of the American Physical Society. Only the Czech Republic already has a majority of people who are unaffiliated with religion, but the Netherlands, for example, will go from about 40% unaffiliated today to more than 70% by 2050, they expect. Even deeply Catholic Ireland will see religion die out, the model predicts. "They've gone from 0.04% unaffiliated in 1961 to 4.2% in 2006, our most recent data point," Abrams says. He admits that the increase in Muslim immigration to Europe may throw off the model, but he thinks the trend is robust enough to withstand some challenges. "Netherlands data goes back to 1860," he pointed out. "Every single data that we were able to find shows that people are moving from the affiliated to unaffiliated. I can't imagine that will change, but that's personal opinion, not what the data shows." But Barry Kosmin, a demographer of religion at Trinity College in Connecticut, is doubtful. "Religion relies on human beings. They aren't rational or predictable according to the laws of physics. Religious fervor waxes and wanes in unpredictable ways," he said. "The Jewish tradition that says prophecy is for fools and children is probably wise," he added. And Abrams, Wiener and Yaple are not the first to predict the end of religion. Peter Berger, a former president of the Society for the Scientific Study of Religion, once said that, "People will become so bored with what religious groups have to offer that they will look elsewhere." He said Protestantism "has reached the strange state of self-liquidation," that Catholicism was in severe crisis, and anticipated that "religions are likely to survive in small enclaves and pockets" in the United States. He made those predictions in February 1968. soundoff (3,551 Responses)« Previous 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 Next »
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The CNN Belief Blog covers the faith angles of the day's biggest stories, from breaking news to politics to entertainment, fostering a global conversation about the role of religion and belief in readers' lives. It's edited by CNN's Daniel Burke with contributions from Eric Marrapodi and CNN's worldwide news gathering team.  |
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How else are advocates made!
I say good riddance. Religion is responsible for more deaths than anything else...wars, crusades, witch trials, you name it. It's all tribal, gang mentality. My god is better than your god. Raiders vs the Vikings, red vs blue, Crips and Bloods. There are the faithful and the cynics. It's just evolution : D
Humans in the 21st century are beginning to shed their addiction to Bronze Age mythologies. Had to happen eventually. It is getting a little crowded around here and we need rational solutions. Relying on magic and bashing Science, as it turns out, is not a winning strategy for Humanity. Who knew?
This, folks, is GOOD news.
Great news!
Don't be too quick to celebrate... I have great faith in the power of organized religion to find new converts who would rather subscribe to simplistic answers than learn to think for themselves. Even if a handful of countries manage to overcome this ancient addiction, there's no guarantee that in the future some of those countries with a strong religious grip (Iran, for instance) will not declare war on the "infidels"...
Saving Christians, Mormons, Muslims and Jews from the Great Angel Con:
Joe Smith had his Moroni.
Jehovah Witnesses have their Jesus /Michael the archangel, the first angelic being created by God;
Mohammed had his Gabriel (this "tin-kerbell" got around).
Jesus and his family had Michael, Gabriel, and Satan, the latter being a modern day dem-on of the de-mented.
The Abraham-Moses myths had their Angel of Death and other "no-namers" to do their dirty work or other assorted duties.
Contemporary biblical and religious scholars have relegated these "pretty wingie thingies" to the myth pile. We should do the same to include deleting all references to them in our religious operating manuals. Doing this will eliminate the prophet/profit/prophecy status of these founders and put them where they belong as simple humans just like the rest of us.
Saving Christians, Mormons, Jews and Muslims from the Great Angel Con:
Joe Smith had his Moroni.
Jehovah Witnesses have their Jesus /Michael the archangel, the first angelic being created by God;
Mohammed had his Gabriel (this "tin-kerbell" got around).
Jesus and his family had Michael, Gabriel, and Satan, the latter being a modern day dem-on of the de-mented.
The Abraham-Moses myths had their Angel of Death and other "no-namers" to do their dirty work or other assorted duties.
Contemporary biblical and religious scholars have relegated these "pretty wingie thingies" to the myth pile. We should do the same to include deleting all references to them in our religious operating manuals. Doing this will eliminate the prophet/profit/prophecy status of these founders and put them where they belong as simple humans just like the rest of us.
Some added references to "tink-erbells".
"Latter-day Saints also believe that Michael the Archangel was Adam (the first man) when he was mortal, and Gabriel lived on the earth as Noah."
Apparently hallu-cinations did not stop with Joe Smith.
newadvent.org/cathen/07049c.htm
"The belief in guardian angels can be traced throughout all antiquity; pagans, like Menander and Plutarch (cf. Euseb., "Praep. Evang.", xii), and Neo-Platonists, like Plotinus, held it. It was also the belief of the Babylonians and As-syrians, as their monuments testify, for a figure of a guardian angel now in the British Museum once decorated an As-syrian palace, and might well serve for a modern representation; while Nabopolassar, father of Nebuchadnezzar the Great, says: "He (Marduk) sent a tutelary deity (cherub) of grace to go at my side; in everything that I did, he made my work to succeed."
Catholic monks and Dark Age theologians also did their share of hallu-cinating:
"TUBUAS-A member of the group of angels who were removed from the ranks of officially recognized celestial hierarchy in 745 by a council in Rome under Pope Zachary. He was joined by Uriel, Adimus, Sabaoth, Simiel, and Raguel."
And tin-ker- bells go way, way back:
"In Zoroastrianism there are different angel like creatures. For example each person has a guardian angel called Fravashi. They patronize human being and other creatures and also manifest god’s energy. Also, the Amesha Spentas have often been regarded as angels, but they don't convey messages, but are rather emanations of Ahura Mazda ("Wise Lord", God); they appear in an abstract fashion in the religious thought of Zarathustra and then later (during the Achaemenid period of Zoroastrianism) became personalized, associated with an aspect of the divine creation (fire, plants, water...)."
"The beginnings of the biblical belief in angels must be sought in very early folklore. The gods of the Hitti-tes and Canaanites had their supernatural messengers, and parallels to the Old Testament stories of angels are found in Near Eastern literature. "
"The 'Magic Papyri' contain many spells to secure just such help and protection of angels. From magic traditions arose the concept of the guardian angel. "
For added information see the review at:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angel
Peter Berger himself said his ideas quoted in this article are wrong. In the 1990s, he recanted the prediction that religion would die out: http://iasc-culture.org/HHR_Archives/AfterSecularization/8.12PBerger.pdf.
"Free at last! free at last! thank scientific method, we are free at last!"!
The decline of religion is predictible with the increased awareness of how man manipulates the followers of any particular religion.
Religion doesnt equate to spirituality.
The interest of man to control people is contrary to the interest of God.
A mere look at how many hypocrites populate the US Republican party will make obvious the difference between a religious person and a Godly person.
Consider the trillions and trillions of dollars wasted on churches, administration, overhead, payroll, etc. including the waste of everyone's time that could all be better spent making real progress and creating real jobs, etc.
All that money and time spent on empty rituals, fabricated traditions, and indoctrination of false ideas.
It is one of the biggest toilets humanity uses to flush away money. Pounding sand down a rathole as large as religion is contributing to the problems we all face. We need to reduce our problems, not make them grow!
And do you think that the people in the Religion business will just give up their power base? As long as there are gullible people around, there will be new potential victims for this ancient fraud...
Regarding the death of Religion and the retweet: It's funny how this is reported by U.S. American CNN and only reporting data from European societies, almost like they want to KEEP the "white soup" of (religious) Goodness to themselves. Time will tell and these are ONLY predictions to the (only) extent that Mathematics can predict anything whatsoever (by itself). This is a matter of Humanity and the laws regarding the #HumanMind are still largely unknown if they even exist to that TOTAL extent. A corollary to go with this is: "the white soup" USA is still the best performer in the world in terms of science and technology, hence the LARGE and SUCCESSFUL companies of Intel, Microsoft and Google AND (by wedge) has the most FIERCE army in the world! I can only recommend you to watch the theatre in Libya to unfold (by the largest aircraft-carriers and more). Regarding the mathematics and religion: the data set goes (only) 100 years back (ohh... but that's a long time, Daddy) when religion has been around for some 3000 (yes, thousand) years and being a kind of Mysticism some 60 000 years before that! Cheers! (I think this "story" goes down.)
Wow! Hmmm, ego much? The study was; a study. It was successful in these countries because these countries actually had data that pertained to the study, where as other countries did not. It has nothing to do with "you" and your propensity twords self absorption. Get over it! The countries you are making reference to do not collect data concerning religion (I wonder why-sarcasm) did you not read the article? Gods people! If anything this little blog is a primary example of WHY people are dissatisfied with religious fevor. Take a break, invest in peace.
About damn time.
Note how most atheist people respect religious people's opinions and beliefs, and merely argue against their logic, whilst religious people seem to be trying to convert everyone.
If your god is so almighty, what does he/she/it care for followers/servants?
I ask this not in an attempt to mock anyone, but to actually get a (hopefully) serious answer.
God desires relationships. His entire creation is about that. He created us so that he could love us. He had to give us free will for that to happen, because a robot is not capable of giving love back to you (despite the many movies and TV shows that would tell you otherwise). Unfortunately, humans turned against him and created a division in the relationship- Sin. Because God is so Holy, we cannot be in his presence or we would be destroyed, so he had to make a way to cause humans to become sinless. That way was Jesus. When the sinless incarnation of the infinite God died, he took upon him all the sins of all humanity and made a way for us to be reconciled to God.
So, God is infinitely powerful, and was able to overcome in his own power the mess we made of our relationship with him. Were he not infinitely powerful, the he would have not been able to overcome the world and our sin. The way that he did it also indicates his desire for relationship. He gave us a choice and does not force us to love him. Humans can choose to reject him, but in doing so, we would miss the opporunity to be with him for eternity.
Well Read: you're totally brainwashed... there's practically no hope for you ever learning to think rationally... sad, but I guess you can live out the rest of your life in perpetual fantasy...
Predictions are usually wrong. And Evangelicals are actually growing even in those nations. It's the dead religious that are really dying.
Well said. However, this whole circus of death after life, if God hates you, or life after death, if god's in a good mood, is way to much for me to understand. And to have more death, by watching three people die on a cross around easter?
christ, can't we just go watch a football game?
You'll have to wait for football season.
g,
"Football" in many parts of the world is what Americans call "Soccer", and the season is on for it. I know that this is a U.S. based forum, but we must remember that people from all over the world post comments (and are very welcome here).
Apparently my last post is in moderation for being too intellectual for the masses that CNN serves. My apologies that my comments don't reinforce the profit margins of mass media. Good luck finding any meaning with academics betraying any sense of purpose or any need to value human life and with mass media driving the hysterics of consumerism and instant gratification. These mathematicians have simply plotted the trajectory of postmodern self-absorption, but I'd still like to think that people aren't this shallow and impulsive in their conclusions. Only time will tell!
Chad
"Apparently my last post is in moderation for being too intellectual for the masses that CNN serves."
Perhaps if you were a little nicer about it, someone here would fill you in on overcoming the moderation challenge. (Hint: it has nothing to do with the politics of your posts).
Search for moderation tips and stop jumping to paranoid conclusions. The soft-ware here is automatic. Your pomposity has nothing to do with it.
People are shallow and impulsive and they don't draw conclusions. People imitate much more than think. They see others and they imitate them. The average person does not think about theology and draw conclusions. They become a member of a group and feel good about being included. People do whatever increases the level of dopamine in their brains.
Yes, I wasn't being nice. Guilty as charged, Obviously I was frustrated with my "great" post languishing in moderation (I'm usually nicer and show more humility as well). My angry post here shows what happens when you comment online when fatigued. I hope the gentle masses will forgive me 🙂
Organized religion will go extinct because of the internet and how incredibly easy it is to find little tidbits like this. Religion is imperfect and made made. SImple as that. http://www.project-reason.org/bibleContra_big.pdf
How much internet access is there in places like Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, South and Central American countries? If the Imams that run Iran, for instance, wanted to do so, they could turn off all access... Organized religion has a deeply vested interest in keeping the populace under their control and will do whatever it takes to keep the uninformed masses in their place.
Predictions are usually wrong. And Evangelicals are actually growing even in those nations. It's the dead religious that are really dying.
This comment made me laugh out loud. It's absolutely ridiculous in every way.
Your prediction is probably wrong.
It just means self-stuffers are identifying themselves more clearly. In those nations, population is also shrinking – dissapearing nations. It means the people in non-religious nation are dissapearing and being replaced with the religious.
It feels good to see the Word of the Lord coming to pass in our days. You see, this is not about the fulfillment of our lives but the fulfillment of God's Word. God's Word cannot return to Him void without fulfilling the purpose for which He spoke it.The End time is here.Give your Life to Jesus Now.
It's statements like this that belies why religion is going extinct.....
It feels good to see the Word of the Lord coming to pass in our days. You see, this is not about the fulfillment of our lives but the fulfillment of God's Word. God's Word cannot return to Him void without fulfilling the purpose for which He spoke it.The End time is here.Give your Life to Jesus Now.
My goodness. How many times have I heard that the sky is falling. If the so-called God's word, wasn't written for your life's fullfillment, then why did your jesus die for you people? Seems to me, that if someone would hang on a cross like he did, his intent would be to enrich someone's life. Wouldn't he of died in vain, if someone's life was not enriched at this point?
Now, the world is billions of years old. Chances are, you and I will be long DEAD, by the time it coughs up your God.
However, dead people never tell lies!! So please, talk about the good times to come!!
For thousands of years people like you have been saying things like this. 100% of them have been proven wrong by the persistence of our existence. How does it feel to be a member of this club?
1. BELIEVING GOD has always been a matter of choice. Picture two trees. By definition, choices can never be forced. However, to every choice we make, there are consequences.
2. BELIEVING WHAT GOD SAYS has also never been a matter of numbers. Majority doesn't necessarily make truth. During Noah's time, no one but Noah believed God's warning that the world would be destroyed by flood. He was outvoted, but only he survived the flood with his family. Did the numbers matter? Ultimately, each one will have to present his own thesis defense as to why he made such and such a choice. There will be judgement. In time, one will find out things, one will experience the consequence of his decisions.
3. Although organized religion as the world defines it may be extinct in 9 or all countries, personal relationships between God and those who call of Him will never get extinct. Just as in marriage, although find it extinct and many do not abide by the wisdom of God regarding marriage (one-on-one, male-with-female), there will be a number, however small, who will. Each one will face God and defend himself/herself as best they can. No one can judge the other. Each one will be judged by an impartial and ultimate Judge.
Let us humbly walk – whether one is led by conscience, or by God's word, or by instinct or impulse. We can't force the other how to believe. We can only share our insights and like good salesmen, wait for our prospects to buy-in. In the end, each one will enjoy his good decisions or suffer the consequence of bad decisions.
You fear the unknown and grasp at a dream, letting it pull you into delusional happiness.
You're allowed to do that, but the second your delusion makes you hurt other people you are a living example of why religion is to be avoided in the first place.
Enjoy your fantasy world shared by millions.
Just keep it in your pants or you will be liable to retaliation, pre-emptive strikes, and defensive measures possibly out of proportion to the original offense.
Consider it an offer you can't refuse.
Keep it in your pants or get it burned to a goddamn crisp.
Your choice.
The word of the lord is not very different from reading your Daily Horoscope. You can find all the truths you want to find in the ambiguity.
islandboz: you wrote: "The word of the lord is not very different from reading your Daily Horoscope. "
Worked for Ronald Reagan... I believe he kept an Astrologer on retainer...
It's a sign!!!! What does it mean!
isn't there an app for that?